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junpark11's profile

New Member

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1 Message

Thu, Jul 14, 2022 12:52 AM

How likely is AT&T going to install fiber in a existing area served by AT&T non-fiber?

Hi,

An AT&T internet salesperson from Costco North San Jose tried to get me to switch from Comcast to AT&T. He straight up asked me if I’m a Comcast subscriber, and I told him yes, then he promoted the not-so-fast AT&T internet plan to me. The maximum plan AT&T offers in my area is Internet 25 for $55/month. He could’ve won my heart in the moment if only AT&T fiber was available in area. So, I asked him when AT&T will install fiber in my neighborhood and he said “very soon.” I know to take his words with a grain of salt. The only 2 hardwired ISPs in my area are Cable and DSL. I used to have AT&T DSL nearly 2 decades ago before I switched to the Comcast Cable.


My zip is 95116. My entire neighborhood does not have utility poles or any aerial hanging wires. My driveway has a cement box with the ancient “Pacific Bell” cover on it. I don’t see my other neighbors that have this box. Someone on this forum said that AT&T will upgrade 50% of their hardwired IPBB lines to fiber in the future. I’m eager how this will be accomplished…, burial and digging wise because my entire neighborhood is just sad cement and asphalt (no soil or grass). Can they use their existing underground conduits to insert their new fiber lines without doing much digging?

tonydi

ACE - Guru

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7.5K Messages

3 m مضت

I think 25Mbps is the bottom end of the range of services that have fiber at least part way.  So that moves you from "no way jose" to "maybe, but no way to tell when" status.

You need to take that guy's word with more than one grain.  😁  First off, salesperson, lying.  Second, nobody that the public can interface with has any clues as to when/where/if AT&T will deploy fiber. 

AT&T will horizontal bore under the surface to run fiber since you don't have aerial lines as they won't share conduit with other services. 

my thoughts

Employee

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19.5K Messages

3 m مضت

Possibilities?

Lets take a look at some numbers…

At start of 2022 ATT has (4) years to add 12 million residential fiber addresses to hit the company stated goal of 30 million by end of 2025. 

Expected total hardwired addresses within footprint is 60 million which includes all new construction projections during this time plus existing hardwired addresses. With 18 million already available leaves (60-18) 42 million addresses to be considered.

12 / 42 is 28.5% of addresses will receive fiber.

(My) estimate of new construction (greenfield) during this (4) years is 2 million due to ongoing housing shortages within the USA, builders trying to build. 

12-2 = 10 existing million addresses (brownfields)to be upgraded.

The company has stated the vast majority of upgrades where be in FTTN areas where fiber is already in the neighborhood… this was 33 million at end of 2015 when Uverse FTTN upgrades ended. Since 2016 has been FTTP at average rate of 3 million per year for past 6 years (18 million referred to earlier).

Estimate of FTTN left to upgrade is 22 million.

10/22 to be upgraded to fiber by 2026 is 45%. 

Thus your likelihood of receiving fiber by 2026 is less than odds of a coin toss calling the right outcome.

I personally believe ATT will add a 3rd (5) year fiber buildout 2026-2030 when I would estimate your chances to be near 100% of receiving FTTP within next 8 years.

Of course you can increase your chances by relocating to an address where desired service already exists.

Just my thoughts of the numbers…

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