2009 Hurricane Forecast

Whether and how global warming will influence hurricane frequency or intensity is still a matter of genuine scientific debate. In recent years, scientists have at least identified several factors -- from the extent of rainfall in Africa to the presence or absence of El Nino conditions in the Pacific -- that help them predict the intensity of a hurricane season ahead of time. Scientists just announced the formation of a new El Nino pattern in the eastern Pacific, which tends to reduce the number and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes.

Here's what the two most prominent forecasters had to say before the government's recent assessment of El Nino conditions:

The federal government has predicted a "near normal" hurricane season for the Atlantic, with a 25% chance of above-normal outbreaks and 25% chance of below-normal outbreaks -- though overall, forecasters expressed a greater degree of uncertainty this year than they have in past years. The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's predicts a 70% chance of:

• Named storms: 9-14
• Hurricanes: 4-7
• Major hurricanes: 1-3

The other major forecaster in the U.S., Colorado State University, recently revised down its expectations for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season:

• Named storms: 12
• Hurricanes: 6
• Major hurricanes: 2

Further, the Colorado forecasters predicted the following probabilities that a major hurricane could strike the U.S., all of which are about average for the past century:

These statistic geeks sure try to protect themselves from wrong predictions.

"The federal government has predicted a "near normal" hurricane season for the Atlantic, with a 25% chance of above-normal outbreaks and 25% chance of below-normal outbreaks -- though overall, forecasters expressed a greater degree of uncertainty this year than they have in past years. The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's predicts a 70% chance of:"   ( I guess near normal?)

Also this info seems very old with most posted at the end of May and beginning of June. You would think 2 months later they may have a better grasp on the predictions/conditions since Hurricane season officially starts tomorrow.  

Maybe the whole idea is to make the predictions off the current models they use, then compare their predictions

w/the actual results and use that data to try and get their predictions better by tweaking the models they use.

Indeed Colorado State's Dr. Gray has in the past issued revised forecasts in mid-hurricane season.

Chris

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mibrnsurg wrote:

Maybe the whole idea is to make the predictions off the current models they use, then compare their predictions

w/the actual results and use that data to try and get their predictions better by tweaking the models they use.

Indeed Colorado State's Dr. Gray has in the past issued revised forecasts in mid-hurricane season.

 

Chris

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Please NO SD stretch-o-vision or 480 SD HD Channels
1-800-983-2811 to avoid Mr. Voice Recognition
YRMV IMHO Simply a U-verse user, nothing more

 

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I'm really good at video and film production.

I read recently that Bill Gates has filed for a patent for some device that will stop hurricanes.  I'd like to see that as many ideas have been tried, and failed.

Back to BeeBee's post at end of #90 OT about the Riverwalk getting stimulus $$, I think the Riverwalk is part of a dam/flood control?  They had major flooding in SA in the 1920's.  

Out of curiosity, I looked up glass bottom boats...Aquarena Springs is still there in San Marcos.

Yep Spd you are correct that the dam is for flood control.  Here is what I was able to find:

The Olmos Reservoir Dam is on Olmos Creek in the San Antonio River basin four miles north of downtown San Antonio in central Bexar County (at 29°28' N, 98°28' W). The project is owned and operated by the city of San Antonio for flood protection of the downtown area. The reservoir was constructed after the record flood of September 1921, which extensively damaged the San Antonio business district.

As you can see the whole thing is (dam, riverwalk, etc.) owned by the city.  That's why I was trying to figure out how the Fed's got involved.  Everything else that's ever been done (big dollar amounts) have gone to the voters for bond approval.  I'm just wondering how the 5 million is going to be used.  I haven't heard anything about it on the news, and that seems weird.  Normally some city council person or the mayor would be tooting their horn over this!!

Riverwalk is a glorified storm drain...but still purty!

Wish they'd do something on the W. side of Houston with our dam...but it's here to keep our downtown from flooding.  Was farmland/country in the 1930s, but they forced the move of a little church and residents to build.

Lots of flooding out here as far as the Memorial area in April, as y'all recall.   But have a feeling we aren't a priority since the big $$ is in River Oaks/downtown. 

Uni, yeah, speed limits in the boonies, but doubt they are adhered to much.  Would be the place I'd NOT speed as you'd be a sitting duck.  Best to speed along with the flock.   But because we are so spread out, why we need higher speed limits.

And you might be right about the Oak; hope no more drop off and these are HUGE branches!  That's why I like to keep the grass well-watered here because those roots are all under the lawn by now.

Speaking of rain, we just got TONS of rain! 

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spd2demun wrote:

Riverwalk is a glorified storm drain...but still purty!

 

 

Especially if you ask Mark Cuban!!

 Crocodile got loose from carry on lugage on Cairo bound plane. Being there would have been a trip.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/5949738/Crocodile-causes-panic-as-it-wanders...

I've seen "Snakes on a Plane" but not "Crocs on a Plane".

Come on, a loose one foot long crocodile caused a massive panic on this plane? 

My brother and I both had alligators that were that big when we were little kids.  

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Escapee wrote:

 Crocodile got loose from carry on lugage on Cairo bound plane. Being there would have been a trip.

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/5949738/Crocodile-causes-panic-as-it-wanders...

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Had the weekend shift this weekend so I get 4 days off, wish it were 3 weeks though

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spd2demun wrote:
Morons in Houston kill 600 lb. alligator, illegally.   What is wrong with people????

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Thats a shame.  I don't think they will get off to easy for that.

KK from your statement you are finding out why adults can be grumpy. Enjoy your days off.

KK something strange is going on with your Sig. It may be my FF 3.5 or the Noscript but it is just a box. I can click on it and your stats page comes up. I was going to tell you but then it was there in full and then it was not. i clicked on the Kudo and it expanded to normal. You don't show up much and then you cause problems when you do.  Just ragging on you.  You are missed show up as often as you can. I am guessing school is about to strt back in a few week. Hope you get the classes with the best instructors at the time you need them. Stay kool.

I sent a note to the one and only Computer-Joe.

He said the old and new houses were keeping him very very busy. He hopes to have the old house ready for the market in the next two weeks.

He said he missed us and hoped to be back adding to the conversation on the Forum. shortly. 

Sounds like good news to me.

PS still no signs of Uverse for the new place. 

"The problem is not in your set..."

I would guess the problem with your sig is in the 4 month old "new" forum system rather than your computer. Have seen stranger things happen here lately and the html editor is functioning like the computer in "2001". 

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Koolkid1935 wrote:
I have been noticing it too but wasn't sure if it was just my computer or if others were having problems with it.  I went ahead and took it off for now.

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Koolkid1935 wrote:
I have been noticing it too but wasn't sure if it was just my computer or if others were having problems with it.  I went ahead and took it off for now.

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What box?  What problem?  What sig.?

I think Uni is right. Emotions finally worked on the first click now it scrinks to popup size and I have to cancel and repeat the step. I think KK was having the same problem the page for his sig would never finish loading and expand to full size. If you clicked on the kudo his sig would expand.

Phil you have never noticed his sig at the bottom of his posts. It is really fancy like some of the sigs over on UU.  If you click on it a window opens and shows the scores of all the games KK plays. Kid is not around very much between school and work. He may have been the second person to sign on to U talk.

Hope he gets the problem straightened out. 

You can not see it because he removed the sig. So it is gone on all his posts. Just like the your colors when they change every post in the past becomes the new color. It will make some posts strange if some one reads an old post about being in the Barney club and your color is no longer purple.

AT&T is slowing down on UV?

Fact or fiction?

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Escapee wrote:

I think Uni is right. Emotions finally worked on the first click now it scrinks to popup size and I have to cancel and repeat the step. I think KK was having the same problem the page for his sig would never finish loading and expand to full size. If you clicked on the kudo his sig would expand.

 

Phil you have never noticed his sig at the bottom of his posts. It is really fancy like some of the sigs over on UU.  If you click on it a window opens and shows the scores of all the games KK plays. Kid is not around very much between school and work. He may have been the second person to sign on to U talk.

Hope he gets the problem straightened out. 

 

You can not see it because he removed the sig. So it is gone on all his posts. Just like the your colors when they change every post in the past becomes the new color. It will make some posts strange if some one reads an old post about being in the Barney club and your color is no longer purple.

Message Edited by Escapee on 08-03-2009 09:57 PM

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Yep, I remember the sig.  But didn't ever click on it.  I did not know it would show anything.  Anyway.....nothing there now...at least on my FF browser.

$16,000 Whiskey!

Wonder if ox would consider this a good investment?